Ravengate
Partners - Stock market, economic and political commentary by Patricia Chadwick

On Saturday morning, I flew from Phoenix to Tampa.Not surprisingly, the plane was full of boisterous and friendly Cardinals fans on their way to the Super Bowl. “Go Cards” was the mantra – from the USAir attendant assisting the boarding process to the flight attendant on the plane to the pilot when we landed.I was a disinterested party, simply trying to get from a business meeting in Arizona to a short visit with my mother in Siesta Key, Florida.As a Patriots fan; I kept my allegiance to myself.

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It is evident that banks and finance companies are doing everything in their power to rebuild their balance sheets. In an effort to lower their own borrowing costs, they are looking to the Federal Government for guarantees. They are actively engaged in the business of shrinking their own balance sheets, i.e. reducing their loan portfolios. And in the process of trying desperately to survive and eventually some day to thrive once again, they are abrogating the very rationale for their existence.

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As we all slog through this dreadful recession, it helps to keep in mind the insane Monty Python song, Always Look on the Bright Side of Life.While that may seem a bit tough to do at times, there are a number of ways in which one can be frugal while still contributing to the economy.Here are just a few:

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Monday’s Wall Street Journal had an encouraging article regarding Federal Regulators’ putting curbs on interest rates that banks and credit card companies can charge consumers on their balances. This is very good news, and would only be better news if it could be implemented now (rather than mid-2010 as indicated) and if rates could actually be rolled back rather than just not allowed to rise. In fact, it is surprising to me that there is not more consumer advocacy on the subject of credit card interest rates. They are utterly abusive to consumers while reaping extraordinary profit margins for the lenders.

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For Americans traveling in Israel at Thanksgiving time, as I am this year, they are in for a special treat, because hotels and restaurants offer turkey dinner with all the fixings, something that happens in few other foreign cities. And the Israelis really know how to cook turkey American style!

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There are ‘stock’ people and there are ‘bond’ people. I am a stock person and have been all my life. It suits my personality because stock people are optimists. We see the glass as half full. We like to buy and hold stocks for the long term because most of the time things are going well and we make money. We are different from bond people who tend to be cautious and are much more likely to be pessimists. They usually see the glass as half empty.

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There’s no use trying to pretend now. The economic news that poured out last week is ample evidence that the US economy is in a recession. The headline news on the job losses told the story loud and clear and what will follow will be a steep decline in corporate profits which will really be serious losses for many companies and industries, not just the beleaguered automobile sector of the economy.

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This past Saturday, walking down “Main Street” in my town, I popped into the local bookstore (okay it was only Borders, rather than Diane’s, the best bookstore in the country) hoping to support the local economy just a little bit. I had a book in mind – it was Peggy Noonan’s newest publication, entitled, “Patriotic Grace”. I was in no particular hurry to own the book, as it was to be a present for my mother when she turns 80 in three weeks. I paid $21.15 and walked out.

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There really is some good news out there. First, the price of a barrel of oil has dropped from $147 to $63, (this morning) its lowest level since June 2007. In fact, the price of gasoline is now no higher now than it was just a year ago. This favorable trend will act like a tax cut to consumers, putting real money in their pockets. Moreover, consumers can face the upcoming winter with far less trepidation and can take comfort in the fact that as things stand now, their heating bills will likely be more like last year’s.

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Or put another way, beggars can’t be choosers. Over the last few weeks, the world witnessed the impending annihilation of the financial markets worldwide with grave ramifications for capitalism globally. It was scary. And then help came in the form of Government intervention through a massive injection of equity capital into the banks. The UK led the way, and once it had taken that giant step, the U.S. had no choice but to follow suit.

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